Cruise Industry Trends for 2019

MSC Bellissima

A record year of newbuilds, new cruise brands, expedition ships and capacity growth will dominate cruise headlines in 2019, while drydocks grow in scale.

Also impressive will be technology gains, with guests benefiting from the latest connectivity and apps that integrate into the cruise experience while cruise lines continue an arms race to save fuel and reduce their environmental footprint. Among challenges, areas are new shipbuilders and emerging markets.

New Ships

Twenty-four new ships will debut in 2019, making it the biggest year ever for new ship introductions.

The Mein Schiff 2 from TUI Cruises will be the first of the 24 new ships delivered, according to projections from the 2019 Cruise Industry News Annual Report.

Costa Smeralda

The biggest vessel to enter service this year will be the Costa Smeralda with capacity for 5,224 passengers.

MSC’s Grandiosa, a Meraviglia-plus class ship, is also large and will debut in November with capacity for just under 5,000 guests.

The smallest ship debuting? The 100-guest Magellan Explorer from Antarctica21.

MSC is one of four cruise lines with big ship introduction plans in 2019, with the Grandiosa debuting as well as the Bellissima.

Hanseatic Nature

Hapag-Lloyd Cruises will also take delivery of two expedition newbuilds, the Hanseatic Nature and Hanseatic Inspiration.

French luxury line Ponant will get a pair of 180-guest Explorer-class ships, and Costa will take delivery of two megaships.

The Costa Venezia debuts in March from Fincantieri and moves to China for year-round service, while the Smeralda will debut later in the year and sail in Europe.

New Brands

Brands are coming into the cruise industry with newbuild projects and secondhand ships.

Jalesh Cruises will start service in April from Mumbai, offering a short-cruise product for the Indian source market.

In China, CTS (China Travel Service) is expected to start service in the third quarter, which will help boost capacity in the region, which is considerably lower, according to the 2019 China Market Report by Cruise Industry News.

Heading into the future, both The Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection and Virgin Voyages are bringing their new brands and bold new concepts and their brands into the industry with newbuild projects.

Capacity Growth

New ships on order and set to be delivered in 2019 represent an additional 42,488 berths into the industry, obliterating 2018’s record introduction of approximately 34,000 new berths.

According to the  2019 Cruise Industry News Annual Report, the 42,488 berths represent 7.5 per cent additional berths across the industry.

The companies with the biggest plans to fill cabins this year are both European brands. MSC will add 9,388 berths between the Bellissima and Grandiosa, while Costa will add 9,120 berths with the Costa Venezia and Smeralda.

Drydocks Grow in Scale

Refurbishment projects across the industry are only growing in scale, according to the 2019 Drydocking and Refurbishment Report by Cruise Industry News.

Queen Elizabeth in Drydock

The biggest project this year, and the biggest drydock ever to take place will see the Carnival Triumph converted into the Carnival Sunrise over a two-month work period in Cadiz with a budget of $200 million. The ship will debut in Norfolk, Virginia in late April with additional capacity, and a number of new entertainment and food and beverage features.

Elsewhere, Royal Caribbean International’s Navigator of the Seas will be reimagined with a budget of $115 million and then reintroduced into the hot short cruise market in May 2019.

Expedition Boom

The newbuild boom in the expedition market that saw the first of a large number of new ships launching in 2018 shows no signs of slowing down for 2019.

Expedition newbuilds are all over the orderbook this year, with 12 expedition ships set to launch into service.

Hapag-Lloyd Cruises has the single biggest year, with 460 berths coming online with the Hanseatic Nature and Hanseatic Inspiration.

Ponant Explorer-class Ship

Ponant will mark its second year in a row in which it takes delivery of two ships as well, with the new Le Bougainville being joined by Le Dumont-d’Urville.

The most notable delivery will happen in China, as SunStone will welcome the first of up to 10 expedition newbuilds. The Greg Mortimer will debut in August on a long-term charter contract to Aurora Expeditions.

China Questions

China was set to become the world’s largest cruise market, and may still get there, but 2019 will be about the so-called readjustment period in the region.

Too much supply brought on too fast, a challenged distribution model (chartering), a short-in booking window and lack of product differentiation put a stop to runaway growth in China.

Royal Caribbean Ship in Shenzhen

A readjustment period is now the term, and will give Chinese officials time to work on policies and port development; it will also give way to another new Chinese cruise brand coming late this year.

China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) will buy two cruise ships ahead of building a series of new ships.

The company will take delivery of the Costa Atlantica in late 2019, followed by the Costa Mediterranea a year later.

Shipyard Problems

Delayed deliveries, strikes, ownership changes and other major questions revolve around a new set of shipyards that have aggressively entered the cruise business in recent years.

Facing a collapse in the offshore business, shipyards turned to small, expedition and niche cruise lines to gain business back.

Those yards have been met with a host of challenges ranging from ownership changes to yard strikes as they have found out that building a cruise ship is a highly complex task – mainly attributed to the customized hotel aspect of the project.

Technology

While Princess Cruises continues to roll out its OceanMedallion platform, the cruise lines are working hard to upgrade connectivity and provide new apps and digital experiences for passengers.

Royal Caribbean Cruises is utilizing facial recognition to get passengers onboard the ship within 10 minutes of arriving at the terminal; while on the new Celebrity Edge, guests can use an app to turn on and off stateroom lights and even unlock the door.

At MSC Cruises, a personal assistant, Zoe, will debut in every stateroom aboard the Bellissima when the ship is delivered in February.

Passenger-facing apps and connectivity solutions will continue to be hot topics, but behind-the-scenes, a technical arms race will continue to save fuel while lowering environmental impact when it comes to air and water emissions.

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Thin order books for cruise shipbuilders

By Tom Stieghorst

*InsightThe slowdown in new cruise ship orders is starting to bring consequences for the shipyards.

Two of the yards that churn out big cruise ships are on the market, according to a spokesman for STX Corp., the Korean shipping conglomerate that owns them.

A downturn in the shipbuilding and shipping sectors has left STX heavily in debt, and a spokesman said it plans to pare its focus to domestic shipbuilding by divesting overseas assets.
In 2008, when STX acquired yards in Saint Nazaire, France and Turku, Finland, the cruise industry was already putting the brakes on its headlong construction of ships. The surge that culminated with delivery of the $1 billion Oasis and Allure of the Seas ships left the industry with enough berth supply that it was difficult to keep prices moving upwards.*TomStieghorst

Cruise chiefs since then have hewn to a strategy of measured capacity growth. Carnival Corp., for example, has said it plans to order only two to three ships across its 10 major brands each year. The result for shipyards is that they compete for fewer, larger ship contracts than in the past, raising the stakes for each order.

One recent example involved a third copy of the Oasis-class sought by Royal Caribbean International. First crack went to the STX Finland yard that built the Oasis and the Allure, but when the desired level of financing guarantees wasn’t forthcoming from the Finnish government, Royal instead turned to STX France.

As a result, the Finnish shipyard’s order book has just two cruise ships in it for delivery in 2014 and 2015. The Finnish government has already agreed to buy the Turku shipyard site from STX.  Further restructuring may be coming in the second half of the year, STX says.

Germany’s Meyer Werft has four ships in the pipeline, including Norwegian Getaway and Quantum of the Seas. In Italy, Fincantieri has seven, including Regal Princess and Costa Diadema.

In 1989, after the Finnish shipyard fell into bankruptcy, Carnival Corp. had to step in and buy part of it to assure completion of the Fantasy and Ecstasy ships.  Carnival sold the stake two years later.

No one knows if that kind of rescue might be needed again. But until cruise lines step up the pace of new orders, European ship builders are going to have to be creative and flexible to stay in the game.